From the, "not that I would vote for him, but..." file:
Because of the invention of YouTube, Mitt Romney doesn't stand a chance. But I get the feeling that the real Mitt Romney, the one he's tried so hard to hide and the one we can all meet on YouTube, would be a very formidable candidate. 30% of Americans say they would not vote for a Mormon for President. I doubt that when it comes does to the best person for the job this number would be so high, but still. Mitt seems to be directing his campaign directly at those people for whom his Mormonism would be a deal-breaker. My hunch is that this why he is barely registering in the polls while raising more money than any other Republican candidate and performing reasonably well in the debate. He could be speaking to the center-right in the primary and the center for the general election and stand a decent chance of winning both times. He's trying to recreate the "Bush coalition", so uh, good luck with that.
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I always find it interesting when candidates feel that by lobbying enough of a specific voter bloc they can garner enough of the popular vote. I equate Mitt to the Theistic Evoltuion theory: that is, that God created the world, then let evolution run its course. It's not taken seriously by biblicists or humanistic scientists either. A sad middle ground of too right for the left and too left for the right.
Well on that matter, you would probably find that Mitt's stated view is the most commonly held of the three options, and it's also likely that it's closest to the answer you would get from the last five Presidents. But that's sort of my point. I wouldn't vote for either incarnation of this guy, so its just a political observation, but I think his actual self is far more electable than his imagined self. This is partially that his actual self sits very close to dead center and partially that his imagined self is so insincere. I was talking about him a few months ago with someone and surmised that a Mormon could be elected President, just not if he runs as a Baptist.
I think his calculation is/was that he can/could fill the vacuum left by GW Bush in the primaries, but his natural state of default is that of a centrist (GOP Governor of Mass., no less) so he would be able to campaign in the general as a centrist. But so far, he is hardly registering in the polls, so he's made some sort of misstep out of the gates with the group that he thought was his for the taking. Also, the Bush coalition was have since fractured beyond repair, so there may no longer be a band in the market for a lead singer, just a bunch of players looking for bands and open to a new style of music.
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